Ben Oye
As Nigeria turns 66 on October 1st 2026, All eyes and ears are tuned to Abuja in anticipation of the traditional independence broadcast of the President. Public analysts, critics and supporters of the President and the ruling party will thoroughly dissect his speech. One issue the critics are expected to focus on is the desirability and sustainability of national public debt.
The 36 states and FCT will be celebrating with a combined domestic debt of N4.59 trillion according to recently released data from the Debt Management Office, DMO for second quarter of this year. That is N67.57 billion more than they owed in March and N627.35 billion more than June last year.
Of this figure, ten states hold N3.22 trillion or 70.2% while four states - Lagos, Delta, FCT and Rivers - alone hold 49.5% of the total. Lagos: N1.195trn, Delta: N369.30bn after adding N155.45bn in one quarter, FCT: N358.79bn after cutting N31.08bn, Rivers: N354.64bn, Edo: N214.93bn, Ogun: N189.05bn, Bauchi: N157.35bn, Niger: N140bn, Cross River: N130.01bn, Benue: N112.32bn.
Governments, globally, borrow often for various reasons. Funding of developmental projects, development of capital market, smoothing revenue volatility, funding in times of emergencies induced by wars, natural disasters, pandemics etc, and prevention of economic disasters such as depression are some of the justifications for government borrowing.
Though many states' debt are unjustified for breaching the requirement of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, states such as Lagos, Rivers, and Ogun have demonstrated the capacity to effective manage public debt.
The debt to IGR ratio is the real fiscal independence test. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, states generated N5.15trn IGR in 2025, up 40.93% from N3.65trn in 2024. Lagos alone did N1.77trn, Rivers N428.42bn, FCT N356.34bn and Ogun N252.36bn.
State Debt Q2 '26 IGR 2025 Debt/IGR
Lagos 1,195bn 1,770bn 67.5%
Delta 369.3bn 110bn 335.7%
FCT 358.79bn 356.34bn 100.7%
Rivers 354.64bn 428.42bn 82.8%
Edo 214.93bn 85bn* 252.9%
Ogun 189.05bn 252.36bn 74.9%
Bauchi 157.35bn b20bn* 786.7%
Niger 140bn b30bn* 466.6%
C/River 130.01bn 40bn* 325.0%
Benue 112.32bn 29.38bn l382.3%
*Delta, Edo, Bauchi, Niger, Cross River estimates based on NBS 2024 + 40% growth. Benue IGR 29.38bn confirmed in FAAC report.
By the information contained in the above table, Lagos, Rivers and Ogun can clear their domestic debt with less than one year of IGR. Delta, Edo, Cross River, Benue, Niger and Bauchi need 3-7 years of total IGR to clear their debt. Bauchi is most exposed.
Most states still depend heavily on statutory allocations from the Federal Allocation Account Committee. In first half of 2026, Lagos got N365.78bn, Delta N331.43bn, Rivers N295.99bn, FCT N123.67bn. Total FAAC to states from January to June, 2026 stood at N4.65trn.
We annualise the half year total revenue of of the following states to get their respective debt to revenue percentage:
State. Total Revenue/yr. Debt/Revenue %
Lagos 2,501bn 47.8%
Rivers 1,020bn 34.8%
Delta 772bn 47.8%
FCT 603bn 59.5%
Ogun 400bn 47.2%
Edo 253bn 84.9%
Niger 190bn 73.7%
Cross River 175bn 74.3%
Benue 165bn 68.0%
Bauchi 160bn 98.3%
When FAAC is added, sustainability improves dramatically. Only Edo and Bauchi cross 80%. This explains why FAAC reform is existential. If oil price falls or VAT is re-shared, Edo, Bauchi, Niger, Cross River and Benue will hit a wall.
Using rebased national GDP to test debt sustainability of these stars, Lagos economy is estimated at ₦86trn, Rivers ₦22trn, Delta ₦18trn, and Ogun ₦12trn. All 10 states have debt-to-GDP under 3%, except FCT at 4.5%. By international 10% subnational threshold, debt looks small relative to GDP. Problem is not size, it is cash flow - IGR.
How Much Goes to Servicing? DMO reported national domestic debt service fell to N2.14trn in Q2 2026. For states, domestic debt service averages 18-24% of debt stock annually at current Treasury-Bill/Bond rates.
Lagos services its debt with an estimated ₦215bn/year representing 12% of IGR and 8.5% of total revenue. Rivers: ₦64bn translating to 14.9% of IGR or 6.2% of total revenue. The two states have a highly sustainable debt going by this.
However, Delta services its debt with ₦66bn annually. It amounts to 60% of IGR or 8.5% of total revenue. This shows a high IGR stress, It is moderate if FAAC holds.
On the other hand, Bauchi, Niger, Benue, and Cross River have debt service profile of between 50-110% of IGR. Without FAAC, they cannot service debt and pay salaries.
Nigeria's debt problem is not federal alone. Stakeholders should pay more attention to activities of subnational governments to ensure even national development. At 66, we have two Nigerias:
Lagos, Rivers, Ogun, FCT are VAT-driven survivors. Their debt is below 100% of IGR. Their VAT receipts in Feb 2026 alone are hefty with receiving Lagos N101.34bn, showing why VAT is now bigger than statutory allocation.
Delta, Edo, Bauchi, Niger, Cross River, Benue are FAAC addicts. Their debt is 250-786% of IGR. Delta's 72% jump in one quarter and FCT's 405% year-on-year growth narrative shows borrowing to cover recurrent, not capital.
Moreover, the slowdown to 1.49% quarterly growth is deceptive because Delta alone added more than the total net increase while Enugu, FCT, Rivers and Ogun cut debt.
For true debt sustainability states must grow IGR beyond PAYE which already provides 51.3% of all IGR and 69.51% of tax revenue. Otherwise, any FAAC shock will turn domestic debt from a financing tool to a fiscal trap.


















