NSITF Boss Seeks Stronger Inter-Agency Collaboration to Improve Workers' Welfare

TA to the MD/CE NSITF, Dayo Alao speaking on behalf of the MD, at the event 

Managing Director/Chief Executive of the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF), Oluwaseun Faleye, has called for stronger inter-agency collaboration across the public service to enhance workers' welfare, productivity and social security.

The NSITF MD made the call on Thursday in Abuja in his goodwill message at the Technical Retreat on Presidential Priority, Ministerial Deliverables and Performance Management System (PMS).

He commended the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment for convening the meeting, describing it as a vital platform for dialogue, coordination and exchange of ideas among agencies with shared institutional responsibilities.

"I commend the Ministry for providing this platform for dialogue, coordination and the exchange of ideas, such engagements are important because the effectiveness of public service delivery depends not only on the performance of individual institutions, but also on how well we work together,” he said.

Faleye, who was represented at the retreat by his Technical Assistant, Dayo Aloa, noted that the collective responsibility of the Ministry of Labour and NSITF remains the same, “to deliver public value, strengthen institutions and improve the welfare and security of Nigerians." 

Speaking on the Fund's mandate, Faleye explained that the NSITF administers the Employees' Compensation Scheme (ECS) established under the Employees' Compensation Act 2010, which provides compensation and support for employees and their dependants in cases of work-related injuries, occupational diseases, disabilities and death.

"At the heart of this mandate is a simple but important principle: no worker or family should be left without support when a qualifying workplace incident disrupts their livelihood and future," he said.

He stressed that workers' welfare is inseparable from national productivity, industrial harmony and sustainable economic development, adding that a worker who feels protected contributes more meaningfully to the workplace.

Faleye further stated that the Fund's role goes beyond claims processing and payment of compensation, but includes sustained engagement with employers and workers, improved awareness of the Scheme, stronger compliance with statutory obligations and commitment to workplace health and safety.

"We must remain focused on making the Scheme accessible, responsive, transparent and effective for those entitled to its protection," he stressed.

Emphasizing that no single agency can address all dimensions of workers' welfare, employment protection, workplace safety and social security alone, the NSITF boss called for reduced duplication, knowledge sharing and more coherent responses to challenges facing Nigerian workers and employers.

"I therefore see this meeting as an opportunity to deepen our working relationships, identify practical areas of collaboration and strengthen the alignment between our respective programmes and priorities," he noted.

Looking ahead to 2027, the Managing Director reaffirmed NSITF's commitment to strengthening implementation of the ECS, improving service delivery, promoting employer compliance and advancing workplace safety.

"As we deliberate on our institutional responsibilities and targets, we should remain mindful that the ultimate measure of our success is not merely the activities we undertake, but the tangible improvements our work delivers to the people we serve," he said.

He thanked the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment and participating agencies for their contributions to public service delivery and wished the meeting fruitful deliberations that will lead to a more productive and secure Nigeria.

NSITF REBUTTAL: SAHARA REPORTERS ON THE ECSA PLATFORM

Press statement

ECSA Is NSITF's Platform, Employers' Data Is Secure, and Handover Is Under Way — NSITF Responds to Sahara Reporters

Abuja, October 13, 2026

Management of the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) has seen a report published by Sahara Reporters on October 11th 2026 concerning the Fund's Electronic Compliance and Safety Application (ECSA). 

The report relies largely on anonymous sources and contains claims that are inaccurate or misleading. 

Management wishes to set the record straight for employers, stakeholders and the public.

1. ECSA belongs to NSITF

ECSA was conceived, built and deployed within the Fund. The platform in its entirety is the intellectual property of NSITF. 

No individual holds an ownership claim to ECSA, and there is no evidence to the contrary.

The suggestion that ECSA was copied or rebranded from the intellectual property of P2E Technologies Limited is false. ECSA was developed independently of the E-NSITF Project, which the Fund awarded to P2E Technologies on 25 April 2022.

It was the failure of the E-NSITF Project to deliver a working electronic certification system that led the Fund to upgrade an already existing in-house data harmonization tool into ECSA. 

4. The report's other claims, and the facts

Claim: The platform was shut down by an officer who then became unreachable. 

Fact: Certification services are live and have not been impacted. (section 6).

Claim: The officer sought voluntary exit in order to return as a consultant managing ECSA. 

Fact: Exit applications are handled under public service rules. No arrangement has been or will be made that places a Fund platform under the control of any external individual.

Claim: It is unclear who controls the system and employers' data. 

Fact: The Fund controls ECSA and its data, which reside on NSITF's own database infrastructure. Access has always been restricted to designated NSITF officers (section 5).

Claim: The move to re-capture company records signals a breakdown. 

Fact: The re-capture is a planned business-continuity and data-validation measure, so that certificates continue to be issued while the handover completes (section 6).

Claim: The Fund failed to respond to enquiries. 

Fact: Media enquiries are answered through the Fund's official channels on behalf of Management. The Fund remains open to any journalist who wishes to verify facts before publication.

5. Employers' data is secure

All employer information captured on ECSA resides on NSITF's database infrastructure, controlled by the Fund. Administrative and privileged access to the platform has always been restricted to designated NSITF officers, and this has been reviewed again. 

Management would like to assure employers, employees and the general public that NO employer data has been lost, copied, transferred or exposed.

The Fund handles employer data in line with the Nigeria Data Protection Act 2023 and will continue to do so.

6. Certification services continue

The instruction to staff to re-capture company records from April 2026 is a business-continuity and data-validation measure. It ensures that compliance certificates continue to be issued. Employers can continue to obtain certificates through the appropriate channel/branch offices/portal, and no eligible employer has been or will be denied a certificate.

7. Stronger safeguards for all Fund platforms

Management agrees that public digital platforms need clear rules on ownership, source-code custody, system access and exit arrangements. Under the leadership of the Managing Director/Chief Executive, Mr Oluwaseun Mayomi Faleye, the Fund has formalised these protocols for ECSA and every other NSITF digital system, so that no platform depends on any single individual.

8. Conclusion

NSITF remains committed to transparency and to protecting the interests of the employers and workers it serves. Members of the media are encouraged to verify information with the Fund's official channels before publication. Enquiries may be directed to our customer service lines as appropriate.

Signed

Head, Corporate Affairs Department

Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund

October 13, 2026

Go The Extra Mile to Earn Public Trust, NSITF MD Charges Staff

MD/CE NSITF, Barrister Oluwaseun Mayomi Faleye poses with the ED Admin, Barrister Samaila Abdu against the celebration banner

Managing Director of the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF), Mr Oluwaseun Faleye, has charged staff of the Fund to sustain a culture of empathy, collaboration and excellent service delivery, saying going the extra mile would give the organisation an extra edge in public perception.

Faleye gave the charge on Tuesday in Abuja while flagging off the 2026 Customer Service Week celebration at the Fund's headquarters.

According to him, the theme of this year's celebration, "Go The Extra Mile," should not be regarded as a one-week slogan but as a permanent work ethic for all departments of the Fund.

"As the theme says, we go the extra mile. I urge us this week, this month and of course going forward to go the extra mile for not only ourselves internally as we collaborate to make our service to our customers out there exemplary, but also to the outside world to leave a great perception of the Fund," the MD said.

He noted that sustained excellent service will shape how Nigerians perceive and experience the NSITF, while also giving staff personal satisfaction from doing their best for the public.

"Going the extra mile will give us the extra edge. The extra edge in terms of how people perceive us, the extra edge in terms of how people experience NSITF and of course the extra edge in terms of personal satisfaction knowing that you are doing your best for people," Faleye stated.

The NSITF boss described the Fund's mandate as sensitive and paternal in nature, stressing that it demands empathy and understanding when dealing with injured workers, employers and dependants.

"You know, the sort of service that we deliver is very important and sometimes quite paternal in nature. And it means that we must show empathy, we must show sensitivity and understanding when we deal with people," he said.

He further cautioned staff against treating Customer Service Week as a ceremonial event, urging them to use it as a period of reflection on how little habits and efforts can galvanise collective success.

"I don't want us to just use the moment, the week, the month as a customer service oriented period and afterwards go back to our usual status. I want us to keep that momentum, sustain that momentum going forward because it is through a sustained and enhanced customer service delivery that we can be better," he stressed.

Faleye emphasized internal collaboration as the foundation for external service excellence, noting that every department is a customer to the other.

"I don't want you to see this customer service as an external facing matter. Inspection and audit, compliance, claims departments, we are all customers to each other in providing service to the ultimate customer out there. 

"So how you treat your colleague from another department that has come to ask for something that will impact how the customer out there sees us," he explained.

While acknowledging that many staff deliver their best under difficult circumstances, the Managing Director assured that management will continue to provide a conducive environment and necessary tools for more efficient service delivery.

"We will continue to evolve. We will continue to provide the necessary tools for you to do those things in a much more efficient manner," he assured.

Faleye expressed satisfaction that public perception of the NSITF has improved in the last one to two years, adding that with consistent extra-mile service, the Fund will achieve more.

"I am glad to say that in the last couple of months, in the last year or two, we've seen an increase in the better perception of what we can do, how we can do better and we will do better. So with an extra mile, we will get there," he added.

He thanked staff for their dedication and wished them a resounding Customer Service Week, Month and Year.

As part of the celebrations to mark the 2026 Customer Service Week, NSITF has schedules a cultural day on Wednesday October 14th, 2026 as well as the the MD Football Cup match on Thursday 15th October.

Customer Service Week is a global event celebrated in the first full week of October annually to raise awareness of customer service and recognize the vital role of customer service professionals.

In 1992, the United States Congress, through a joint resolution, proclaimed Customer Service Week a national event. Since then, it has been adopted in over 60 countries, including Nigeria, with businesses and public sector organizations using it to appreciate frontline staff, reaffirm service commitments and deepen customer loyalty.

This year's global theme, "The Extra Mile - Going Above and Beyond," encourages organizations to exceed expectations and deliver proactive, personalized service.

For the NSITF, the week is more than ceremonial. Established by law to manage the Employees' Compensation Scheme, ECS, under the Employees' Compensation Act, 2010. The Fund is Nigeria's apex social insurance institution providing comprehensive compensation to employees who suffer work-related injuries, diseases, disabilities or death in the course of employment.

Its customers range from Nigerian workers and employers in both public and private sectors, to labour unions, dependents of deceased workers, and other stakeholders in the occupational safety and health ecosystem.

Pensioners hail NSITF MD over implementation of 23-year-old S’Court judgment

Pensioners under the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund Chapter of the Nigerian Union of Pensioners have commended the Managing Director of the NSITF, Oluwaseun Faleye, for implementing a Supreme Court judgment that left mesome retirees waiting for their entitlements for more than 23 years.

The pensioners also praised the NSITF management for implementing approved pension increases and paying outstanding arrears, describing the measures as a relief to retired workers.

The commendation was contained in a letter titled, “Letter of commendation and appreciation,” dated October 7, 2026, and signed by the NUP NSITF Chapter President, Danlami Aliyu, and Secretary, Olutekunbi Ayodele.

The letter, referenced NUP/NSITF/2026/004, addressed to Faleye. It commended the management for what the pensioners described as its commitment to addressing the welfare concerns of retired NSITF workers.

The union said the implementation of the Supreme Court judgment was particularly significant because some of the affected pensioners had spent more than two decades pursuing their entitlements.

It described the payment as a demonstration that long-standing pension disputes could be resolved with sufficient commitment from the relevant authorities.

The pensioners also commended the management for the N32,000 increase in monthly pension payments across the board, as well as the payment of accrued arrears approved by President Bola Tinubu.

They further expressed appreciation for the implementation of the 20 per cent and 28 per cent pension increases, saying the measures had provided additional financial relief to retirees at a time when many pensioners were facing increased living costs.

“Sir, these actions are not only commendable but have demonstrated your good intention, integrity and fatherly disposition towards our senior citizens who served the nation diligently,” the pensioners said.

According to the union, the implementation of the approved pension increases and payment of arrears demonstrated the willingness of the NSITF management to translate government policies on pension welfare into actual benefits for retirees.

The pensioners said the resolution of the Supreme Court judgment after more than 23 years was particularly noteworthy because of the prolonged uncertainty experienced by those affected.

They described the development as a significant step towards restoring confidence among retired workers and addressing grievances that had remained unresolved for years.

The union said Faleye’s intervention had also shown sensitivity to the plight of elderly Nigerians who devoted their active years to public service.

“You deserve all accolades for this laudable feat, posterity will forever remember you and your management for this gesture and sincerity of purpose,” the pensioners said.

The development comes against the backdrop of longstanding concerns over pension payments and retirees’ access to approved increases and outstanding entitlements without prolonged delays.

For the NSITF pensioners, however, the recent payments represent a departure from the prolonged wait experienced by some retirees, particularly those covered by the Supreme Court judgment.

The union consequently pledged its continued support and cooperation to the NSITF management while expressing confidence in Faleye’s leadership.

“We are truly proud to have you as our Managing Director and we pledge our support, cooperation and prayers for your success in office,” the union stated.

It urged the management to sustain efforts to address issues affecting retired workers, saying the welfare of pensioners remained an important measure of institutional responsibility.

NSITF Raises Alarm Over Fake Recruitment Scam, Warns Nigerians Against Fraudsters The Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) has raised the alarm over the circulation of fake employment advertisements and appointment letters being used by fraudsters to deceive unsuspecting members of the public. The warning was contained in a public notice issued by the Fund and circulated to its Regional and Branch Managers through a memorandum dated October 5, 2026, signed by the Executive Director, Administration, Samaila Abdu, Esq. According to the notice, NSITF is not currently recruiting for any position, describing employment advertisements circulating on social media, particularly Facebook, purportedly issued by the Fund as fake. The Fund said the fraudulent advertisements were part of a growing trend involving individuals and groups falsely claiming to represent NSITF in recruitment activities. NSITF categorically warned members of the public against responding to such advertisements or making payments to anyone in connection with purported employment opportunities. The Fund stressed that it does not charge any fee for employment and does not conduct recruitment through unofficial social media platforms or channels. It further stated that all genuine employment opportunities, whenever available, would be communicated through its official channels. “Stay alert, stay safe,” the Fund urged, advising members of the public who encounter suspicious recruitment advertisements or requests to avoid responding and report them to the appropriate NSITF authorities. As part of measures to protect the public and safeguard the integrity of its recruitment process, NSITF management has directed all Regional and Branch Managers to prominently display the public notice at strategic locations within their offices. The directive covers reception areas, main entrances and exits, notice boards, SERVICOM desks and other conspicuous locations accessible to staff and members of the public. The Fund said the notice should be displayed immediately and kept visible to ensure that members of the public are adequately informed and protected from fraudulent recruitment activities. NSITF urged Nigerians, particularly job seekers, to exercise caution and verify every recruitment claim through the Fund’s official communication channels before taking any action. The development comes amid growing concerns over fraudulent online recruitment schemes targeting unemployed Nigerians with promises of government jobs in exchange for money or personal information. NSITF’s latest warning underscores the need for job seekers to remain vigilant, as legitimate public-sector recruitment does not require applicants to pay individuals or unofficial agents for employment.

 

The Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) has raised the alarm over the circulation of fake employment advertisements and appointment letters being used by fraudsters to deceive unsuspecting members of the public.

The warning was contained in a public notice issued by the Fund and circulated to its Regional and Branch Managers through a memorandum dated October 5, 2026, signed by the Executive Director, Administration, Samaila Abdu, Esq.

According to the notice, NSITF is not currently recruiting for any position, describing employment advertisements circulating on social media, particularly Facebook, purportedly issued by the Fund as fake.

The Fund said the fraudulent advertisements were part of a growing trend involving individuals and groups falsely claiming to represent NSITF in recruitment activities.

NSITF categorically warned members of the public against responding to such advertisements or making payments to anyone in connection with purported employment opportunities.

The Fund stressed that it does not charge any fee for employment and does not conduct recruitment through unofficial social media platforms or channels.

It further stated that all genuine employment opportunities, whenever available, would be communicated through its official channels.

“Stay alert, stay safe,” the Fund urged, advising members of the public who encounter suspicious recruitment advertisements or requests to avoid responding and report them to the appropriate NSITF authorities.

As part of measures to protect the public and safeguard the integrity of its recruitment process, NSITF management has directed all Regional and Branch Managers to prominently display the public notice at strategic locations within their offices.

The directive covers reception areas, main entrances and exits, notice boards, SERVICOM desks and other conspicuous locations accessible to staff and members of the public.

The Fund said the notice should be displayed immediately and kept visible to ensure that members of the public are adequately informed and protected from fraudulent recruitment activities.

NSITF urged Nigerians, particularly job seekers, to exercise caution and verify every recruitment claim through the Fund’s official communication channels before taking any action.

The development comes amid growing concerns over fraudulent online recruitment schemes targeting unemployed Nigerians with promises of government jobs in exchange for money or personal information.

 NSITF’s latest warning underscores the need for job seekers to remain vigilant, as legitimate public-sector recruitment does not require applicants to pay individuals or unofficial agents for employment.

Nigeria @ 66: Tinubu Declares "End of Pain", "Age of Prosperity"

By Ben Oye

Three years ago, from Eagle Square, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu looked Nigerians in the eye and told them the truth no leader had dared to tell: the reforms would be painful.

Three years later, on Thursday 1st October, 2026, in his 66th Independence Day broadcast to the nation, he didn't ask for more patience, rather, he declared victory over the old order. "The age of reforms has ended. The age of prosperity has begun," he announced.

It was not just a speech. It was a closure.

The Courage to Do What Others Postponed

For decades, Nigerian leaders knew what had to be done - remove the $10 billion annual fuel subsidy that enriched a cartel, unify the multiple exchange rates that fed arbitrage, and stop the Ways and Means printing that destroyed the naira. They knew, but they calculated political consequences and walked away.

Tinubu did not calculate. In his first day in office, he ended subsidy and floated the naira. Inflation spiked, the cost of living bit hard, and the opposition predicted collapse. The President never blinked. That is the definition of courageous leadership - the ability to take the necessary hard decision without looking at the next election.

Today, the data has vindicated him.

The Numbers Behind Prosperity

The President's prosperity declaration is not rhetoric, it is backed by figures that every Nigerian can now see in their state accounts:

States Are Richer Than Ever:* Because subsidy removal freed trillions, FAAC allocation to states hit N4.65 trillion in H1 2026 alone. Lagos received N365.78 billion, Delta N331.43 billion, Rivers N295.99 billion. This is why states can now pay N70,000 minimum wage, clear pension arrears and still build roads. NBS confirms states IGR jumped 40.93% to a record N5.15 trillion in 2025, led by Lagos with N1.77 trillion. The reforms made states fiscally viable.

Debt is Being Tamed:* After years of uncontrolled borrowing, DMO reports subnational debt growth has slowed to just 1.49% in the second quarter of 2026, with total at N4.59 trillion. Major states like Lagos, Rivers and FCT actually cut their domestic debt last quarter. National domestic debt service fell to N2.14 trillion in second quarter and external debt service to $870.7 million. The debt trap is breaking. 

Revenue, Not Oil:  For the first time, VAT, not oil, is driving FAAC. In February 2026, Lagos alone contributed N101.34 billion in VAT. PAYE now accounts for 51% of IGR nationally. Nigeria is finally taxing consumption and productivity, not just crude.

The Economy is Growing: From 2.5% in 2023, GDP growth hit 4.07% in fourth quarter of 2025 and has held above 3.8% for a full year. Inflation, which peaked at 34% in 2024, is now on a steady decline as food production responds to improved exchange rate competitiveness.

From Reforms to Results

The President was clear: reforms were never the destination. Prosperity is.

He listed what the age of prosperity will mean - a new push for food security that will crash food prices, CNG buses and credit schemes that have already cut transport costs by 40% on key routes, student loans that have put 500,000 students back in school, and an industrial policy that will make Nigeria manufacture what it consumes.

His core message to Nigerians who endured the pain is: you were right to trust the process.

Why He Deserves Trust for Another Term

In three years, Tinubu has done what no leader since 1960 attempted - he fixed the foundation. The subsidy regime that funded a few is gone forever. The multiple exchange rates that rewarded connection are gone forever. The era where states came to Abuja with caps in hand every month is over.

To return to the old policies now would be to return to queues, to dollar scarcity, to a central bank funding government deficits. Nigerians have tasted hardship, but they have also seen that hardship with purpose ends.

At 66, Nigeria is no longer a nation managing poverty. It is a nation positioned for wealth. The President who had the courage to start the reforms is the only one with the credibility to manage the prosperity.

The age of pain is over. The age of prosperity has just begun.

Nigeria @66; Desirability and Sustainability of Subnational Domestic Debt

Ben Oye 

As Nigeria turns 66 on October 1st 2026, All eyes and ears are tuned to Abuja in anticipation of the traditional independence broadcast of the President. Public analysts, critics and supporters of the President and the ruling party will thoroughly dissect his speech. One issue the critics are expected to focus on is the desirability and sustainability of national public debt.

The 36 states and FCT will be celebrating with a combined domestic debt of N4.59 trillion according to recently released data from the Debt Management Office, DMO for second quarter of this year. That is N67.57 billion more than they owed in March and N627.35 billion more than June last year.

Of this figure, ten states hold N3.22 trillion or 70.2% while four states - Lagos, Delta, FCT and Rivers - alone hold 49.5% of the total. Lagos: N1.195trn, Delta: N369.30bn after adding N155.45bn in one quarter, FCT: N358.79bn after cutting N31.08bn, Rivers: N354.64bn, Edo: N214.93bn, Ogun: N189.05bn, Bauchi: N157.35bn, Niger: N140bn, Cross River: N130.01bn, Benue: N112.32bn. 

Governments, globally, borrow often for various reasons. Funding of developmental projects, development of capital market, smoothing revenue volatility, funding in times of emergencies induced by wars, natural disasters, pandemics etc, and prevention of economic disasters such as depression are some of the justifications for government borrowing.

Though many states' debt are unjustified for breaching the requirement of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, states such as Lagos, Rivers, and Ogun have demonstrated the capacity to effective manage public debt.

The debt to IGR ratio is the real fiscal independence test. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, states generated N5.15trn IGR in 2025, up 40.93% from N3.65trn in 2024. Lagos alone did N1.77trn, Rivers N428.42bn, FCT N356.34bn and Ogun N252.36bn. 

State       Debt Q2 '26       IGR 2025          Debt/IGR

Lagos 1,195bn      1,770bn            67.5%

Delta 369.3bn        110bn             335.7%

FCT           358.79bn       356.34bn           100.7%

Rivers 354.64bn     428.42bn             82.8%

Edo            214.93bn         85bn*           252.9%

Ogun 189.05bn     252.36bn             74.9%

Bauchi 157.35bn       b20bn*             786.7%

Niger 140bn        b30bn*             466.6%

C/River      130.01bn         40bn*                       325.0%

Benue 112.32bn        29.38bn                  l382.3%

*Delta, Edo, Bauchi, Niger, Cross River estimates based on NBS 2024 + 40% growth. Benue IGR 29.38bn confirmed in FAAC report. 

By the information contained in the above table, Lagos, Rivers and Ogun can clear their domestic debt with less than one year of IGR. Delta, Edo, Cross River, Benue, Niger and Bauchi need 3-7 years of total IGR to clear their debt. Bauchi is most exposed.

Most states still depend heavily on statutory allocations from the Federal Allocation Account Committee. In first half of 2026, Lagos got N365.78bn, Delta N331.43bn, Rivers N295.99bn, FCT N123.67bn. Total FAAC to states from January to June, 2026 stood at N4.65trn. 

We annualise the half year total revenue of of the following states to get their respective debt to revenue percentage:

State.   Total Revenue/yr.       Debt/Revenue %

Lagos        2,501bn                      47.8%

Rivers        1,020bn                      34.8%

Delta        772bn                      47.8%

FCT                603bn                      59.5%

Ogun        400bn                      47.2%

Edo                253bn                      84.9%

Niger         190bn                      73.7%

Cross River 175bn                      74.3%

Benue         165bn                      68.0%

Bauchi          160bn                     98.3%

When FAAC is added, sustainability improves dramatically. Only Edo and Bauchi cross 80%. This explains why FAAC reform is existential. If oil price falls or VAT is re-shared, Edo, Bauchi, Niger, Cross River and Benue will hit a wall.

Using rebased national GDP to test debt sustainability of these stars, Lagos economy is estimated at ₦86trn, Rivers ₦22trn, Delta ₦18trn,  and Ogun ₦12trn. All 10 states have debt-to-GDP under 3%, except FCT at 4.5%. By international 10% subnational threshold, debt looks small relative to GDP. Problem is not size, it is cash flow - IGR.

How Much Goes to Servicing? DMO reported national domestic debt service fell to N2.14trn in Q2 2026. For states, domestic debt service averages 18-24% of debt stock annually at current Treasury-Bill/Bond rates.

Lagos services its debt with an estimated ₦215bn/year  representing 12% of IGR and  8.5% of total revenue. Rivers: ₦64bn  translating to 14.9% of IGR or 6.2% of total revenue. The two states have a highly sustainable debt going by this.

However, Delta services its debt with ₦66bn annually. It amounts to 60% of IGR or 8.5% of total revenue. This shows a high IGR stress, It is moderate if FAAC holds.

On the other hand, Bauchi, Niger, Benue, and Cross River have debt service  profile of between 50-110% of IGR. Without FAAC, they cannot service debt and pay salaries.

Nigeria's debt problem is not federal alone. Stakeholders should pay more attention to activities of subnational governments to ensure even national development. At 66, we have two Nigerias:

Lagos, Rivers, Ogun, FCT  are VAT-driven survivors. Their debt is below 100% of IGR. Their VAT receipts in Feb 2026 alone are hefty with receiving Lagos N101.34bn, showing why VAT is now bigger than statutory allocation.

Delta, Edo, Bauchi, Niger, Cross River, Benue are FAAC addicts.  Their debt is 250-786% of IGR. Delta's 72% jump in one quarter and FCT's 405% year-on-year growth narrative shows borrowing to cover recurrent, not capital. 

Moreover, the slowdown to 1.49% quarterly growth is deceptive because Delta alone added more than the total net increase while Enugu, FCT, Rivers and Ogun cut debt. 

For true debt sustainability states must grow IGR beyond PAYE which already provides 51.3% of all IGR and 69.51% of tax revenue. Otherwise, any FAAC shock will turn domestic debt from a financing tool to a fiscal trap.